Sherman: Yanks not in on Justin Upton

From Joel Sherman:

The Yankees are so serious about dropping under that $189 million luxury tax threshold for 2014 that, according to a source briefed on their plans, they would not even do a two-year contract in the $20 million range with Torii Hunter, The Post has learned.

Though Arizona’s Justin Upton has become available at the GM Meetings, a person involved in discussions said, “The Yankees are not on him.”

...

Upton, a talented, but enigmatic player, has three years at $38.5 million left on his contract and would count as just $8.54 million (the average annual value of his deal) toward the luxury tax payroll. Nevertheless, even committing those kind of dollars plus the cost-effective prospects necessary to land a player of Upton’s ilk currently is against the Yankees strategy. The Rangers and Rays (who are losing Upton’s brother, B.J., to free agency) were considered the early favorites to get Justin Upton, according to a person involved in talks.

The Yankees want to solve right field by committing as few (maybe zero) dollars to 2014 as possible. In fact, if they need to go to two years to keep Kuroda (which they might not agree to do either), it would all but assure not one cent of 2014 money is put toward right field.

Because the Yankees have become a place veterans like to play because of the promise of championship contention and a large bloc of like-minded, similar-aged players, Hunter could follow the lead of vets such as Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez and spurn better offers to play in The Bronx on a one-year deal.

I still can't figure out how the Yankees expect to compete and get the salary under that $189M mark. Either way, I don't mind the Yanks passing on Upton or Hunter if he actually demands two years. I still think the best move would be to bring back Ichiro on a one-year deal if that's possible.

Yankees Exercise Options on Cano, Granderson, and Aardsma

From Erik Boland:

Free agency officially kicked off in the hours after the Giants completed their four-game sweep of the Tigers in the World Series on Sunday night and, as expected, the Yankees on Monday exercised the club options they held on second baseman Robinson Cano, centerfielder Curtis Granderson and reliever David Aardsma.

Twelve of their players became free agents, headlined by Hiroki Kuroda, Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, Ichiro Suzuki, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. The others are Eric Chavez, Pedro Feliciano, Freddy Garcia, Raul Ibanez, Andruw Jones and Derek Lowe.

Players can start signing with other clubs after midnight ET on Saturday.

OK, just wanted to post that before the Sandy knocked out my power and internet. Stay safe people.

Ichiro Interested In Returning To Yanks

From Joel Sherman:

The Giants were working hard to obtain Ichiro Suzuki before the Yankees did in late July and probably would have interest in the free agent this winter. But a person close to Ichiro told me he strongly wants to stay with the Yankees because he so enjoyed playing in a professional, winning atmosphere with so many contemporaries near his age range.

The friend said he can’t imagine money being a factor, noting that to make matters work when he wanted to be in Seattle, Ichiro deferred $5 million a year on his last long-term contract. The implication was that a one-year deal, perhaps with an option, in the $5 million-to-$8 million range might get it done.

In 67 games for the Yankees, the veteran hit .322/.340/.454, stole 14 bases so to me bringing him back is a very easy decision.

Sabathia Wants Martin Back in 2013

Here's a little more CC Sabathia related news, though this time it's not related to anyu injuries. Here's the story from Mark Hale:

Two Yankees pitchers voiced their support yesterday for free-agent catcher Russell Martin.

“I think it’s important. He’s been a great addition to our team, on and off the field,” CC Sabathia said of re-signing Martin. “That’s not in my department, though. But we’ll have to just wait and see what happens. But he’s been great for us.”

Derek Lowe, who also is set to be a free agent, is unlikely to return to The Bronx. But the veteran righty raved about Martin, whom he has known since the two were teammates with the Dodgers. Lowe pointed out the value of Martin’s power, the defensive improvement he has made and the significance of Martin having proven he can handle playing in New York.

“I had him in L.A.,” Lowe said. “He’s actually probably gotten a little bit better as far as catching because of experience, and with [bench coach] Tony Pena here being a catching guy. There’s not many catchers that are going to hit you 20 home runs and drive in I don’t know how many he had, call a great game, throw guys out. From that standpoint, he’s a guy that’s only getting better. Again, I can say that because I’ve played with him back in L.A., and I’ve seen the progression in a positive way.

“I know this, and you guys know this, it’s hard to bring guys in here that maybe you don’t know how they’re going to perform. And once you have people here that you know can perform here, in my opinion, you’ve got to keep them. Because you know what you’re going to get.”

It's always good to get an endorsement from the ace of the staff, but remember, we're talking about a guy who sat at or under the Mendoza line all season so if they do bring him back I hope it's on a relatively inexpensive deal.

If you were wondering, here is a list of catchers who may be available next season via MLB Trade Rumors:

Rod Barajas (37) - $3.5MM club option, no buyout
Henry Blanco (41) - $1.24MM mutual option
Gerald Laird (33)
Russell Martin (30)
Brian McCann (29) - $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jose Molina (37) - $1.5MM club option with a $300K buyout
Mike Napoli (31)
Miguel Olivo (34) - $3MM club option with a $750K buyout
Ronny Paulino (32)
A.J. Pierzynski (36)
Humberto Quintero (33)
David Ross (36)
Carlos Ruiz (34) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Brian Schneider (36)
Kelly Shoppach (33)
Chris Snyder (32) - $4MM mutual option for 2013 with a $500K buyout
Yorvit Torrealba (34)
Matt Treanor (37)

Not a lot of great names on there, so Martin may actually end up being their best option.

Mark Teixeira = Jason Giambi ?

Soon after Mark Teixeira signed that huge 8-year, $180 million deal back in 2008, I stumbled across an interesting comparison, talking about how Tex could go down the same path as Jason Giambi, who had just finished his 7-year deal with the Bombers.

When I first heard this, I couldn't help but laugh. Giambi was a steroid-user, DL prone for a good part of his contract, and couldn't play first base for his life. Teixeira was arguably the best switch hitter in baseball, and arguably the best first basemen defensively in the league. Teix was a shoe in to dominate and hit .300 every season, and become the new face of the Yankees for years to come.

Or so I thought.

After a terrific 2009 season in which he batted .292 with 39 homers and 122 RBI, Teix's average dropped 36 points the following year, and another 13 in 2011 where he batted .243. Sound familiar?

In Giambi's first year in pinstripes, he batted .314, but out of the blue batted .250 in 2003, and played in only 80 games in 2004, where he batted .208. The final four seasons - .271, .253, .235, .247. Mediocre, and certainly not worth the $120 million George Steinbrenner was paying him. The home runs and RBI were still there, but when he wasn't driving in runs he was striking out, popping out weakly, or killing rallies.

Unfortunately it's not unlikely to say that's what Teixeira will do in his final 5 years of his deal. A promising young star when he signed, Tex is now 31 and this is when he should be putting up his best numbers, not his worst. There's still a chance he could turn it around, but to me, the only way for that to happen is for Teixeira to stop hitting left-handed. 

Teixeira is still a career .304 hitter from the right side, but .271 from the left. As is the case with most switch hitters, Mark has much more power from the left (227 home runs) than the right (86 home runs). But making him a solely right-handed batter would be huge as far as the overall production the Yankees would get out of Mark .

Sure, Tex's power would drop, but 25 home runs is still likely. What should be guaranteed is a return to hitting for average and a huge increase in OBP. More doubles, more RBI. You name it. Making Tex a right-handed batter would show incredible improvement and a return to form of the guy the Yankees signed him to be.

However, the likelihood of this happening is not good at all, and it's likely Tex will continue to switch hit and decline. The fans still have his back, as do I, but another year of batting .250 and not hitting in the clutch will make them think back to the days of gold thongs, the 'Stache, and seasons of Yankee playoff failure.

Andruw Jones Re-Signs with the Yanks

The Fiscally Conservative Yankees

Over these past two months, countless Yankees fans - myself included - have lamented Cashman's apparent lack of activity within the free agent marketplace. C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, and Mark Buehrle have signed, with nary a murmur of genuine interest from the Yankees. Hiroki Kuroda and Roy Oswalt remain available, yet appear to be nothing more than a pipe dream. Beyond those five - all of which appear to be a fair upgrade over any number of the starters on the Yankees current payroll - it would seem that there isn't much to be excited about, regardless of the front office's plan of action (or lack thereof).

This begs a simple, yet important question: why? There are two legitimate answers to the question, I think, and I would argue that they are fairly well intertwined.

With respect to the five aforementioned starters, I think a reasonable argument can be crafted in favor of the Yankees disinterest. Wilson, for all of his success in 2010 and 2011, is 31 ... with two years as a starter on his resume. For that, he received a five year deal worth $75 MM - a figure which includes a hometown discount for the Angels. Does that represent a sound investment?

While I do buy into Darvish's potential, we should not forget that that's all we have to work off of - his potential. He has never pitched stateside, and, despite his dominance in the NPB, the historical NPB to MLB transition has been rocky at best. The issues of a different ball, a new culture, and starting every five days are very real, even for a starter of his caliber. Is that package worth a $100 MM or better investment? And, for comparison's sake, did Stephen Strasburg receive a $100 MM bonus? No.

Buehrle has been remarkably consistent for the past decade or so, but is he really worth $58 MM from his age-33 through 36 seasons? Further, consider that he may have cost the Yankees more, as New York state taxes are fairly costly, whereas Florida's are nonexistent.

As for Oswalt and Kuroda, remember that both are older (34 and 36, respectively), and neither have pitched outside of the National League. Oswalt is also coming off of some fairly disconcerting back issues, and Kuroda is only a few months removed from expressing an unwillingness to pitch on the East Coast. There seems to be at least a bit of risk, even on a one-year deal.

Perhaps I am lying to myself, or even sipping the Cashman Kool-Aid. After all, I have argued for all five being a worthwhile pursuit for the Yankees, and I am somewhat reneging on previous statements. However, considering the risks involved, a large investment may well have resulted in a hindsight-fueled lambasting, not unlike those levied against A.J. Burnett and Alex Rodriguez.

The most pressing reasoning for the lack of spending, however, may well be something that has not been discussed here - the ramifications of crossing the luxury tax line under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Joel Sherman does a tremendous job of outlining what the Yankees have to gain by dipping under that line prior to 2014 here. For our purposes, the key passage is this:

As an organization, they are saying they are driven to have a payroll of $189 million or less in 2014 when that becomes the luxury tax threshold. Because the incentives that come via the new CBA are just too great for them to ignore.

For if they are at $189 million or less for the three seasons from 2014-16, they not only avoid paying one cent in luxury tax, which would rise to 50 percent for them as repeat offenders, but they also would get roughly $40 million in savings via the to-be-implemented market disqualification revenue sharing program. However, only teams under the luxury-tax threshold get reimbursed in this program, which is designed to prevent big markets such as Toronto and Washington from receiving revenue sharing dollars, which in turn will lower how much teams such as the Yanks pay (as long as they are under the threshold).

And even if they just went under $189 million for 2014 before going over again in 2015, the Yankees would receive serious benefits. They would get about $10 million in the revenue sharing disqualification program. Also, by simply going under the threshold once, the Yankees would go back to having a 17.5 percent tax rather than the 50 percent that begins in 2014 for them if they never go under. Keep in mind that since the luxury tax went to 40 percent for them in 2005, the Yankees have averaged paying $25.75 million in tax annually.

As per Cot's Contracts, the Yankees currently have $72.125 MM tied-up in Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia for the 2014 season. That leaves a bit over $116 MM to re-sign Granderson and Cano ... and fill an additional twenty roster slots.

With that in mind, the Yankees hesitance to give long-term deals to Wilson, Darvish, or Buehrle is understandable and wholly justified. Standing pat with Ivan Nova, and giving shots to David Phelps, Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances, all of which would be making the minimum in 2014, in order to see if they could play a role in the team's future may well take precedence over a one-year flier on Kuroda or Oswalt. For the rotation, this may well be a transitional year. As disconcerting as that may be in terms of going all-in for the World Series ... it makes sense for the team's financial future.

The Yankees will be a competitive team this year. I'm loath to point to the team's record last year, or the successes of Garcia and Nova, or anything of the sort - but there is talent throughout the roster, and every team has its fair share of question marks. All things considered, this isn't rebuilding so much as it's ensuring a more stable future, both in terms of salary commitments and roster spots. As someone that enjoys watching a solid team year in and year out, I respect that.

In the end, it boils down to a rather simple terms: frustrating, yet understandable.

Follow me on Twitter - @DomenicLanza

A Brief Blueprint for the Off-Season

Sign Mark Buehrle

Buehrle has started at least thirty games and tossed at least 201 IP in each of the last eleven seasons, and his ERA and FIP have been below-average exactly once in his career, way back in 2006. While he may not represent the "1B" to Sabathia's "1A" that many Yankees fans are clamoring for, such a pitcher does not exist on the market (and paying C.J. Wilson as if he is such a pitcher is foolhardy at best). Buehrle's consistency makes up for the modest upside, and I would have a great deal of faith in him as the Yankees Game 2 starter.

Sign Yu Darvish

You can find further thoughts on Darvish here. Suffice it to say that I believe in his potential, and that upside is worth the gamble, particularly when his posting fee would not count against the luxury tax. This assumes, of course, that Darvish is posted ... which is apparently fifty-fifty at this juncture.

Re-Sign Andruw Jones

Jones battered left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .286/.384/.540 slash line in 2011, good for a 151 wRC+, and he remains a solid defender in both left and right-field. In my mind, there isn't a better option on the market.

Trade A.J. Burnett

This is easier said than done, of course - but the Braves ability to unload Derek Lowe gives me the faintest glimmer of hope. Burnett has the look of a sunk cost at this juncture, and freeing up a roster spot and $6 MM or so (assuming the Yankees pick up around $10 MM per season) would be quite beneficial. If the Yankees can acquire a lottery ticket prospect along the way, that's just gravy.

Follow me on Twitter - @Domenic Lanza